Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Fearless Forecast of the Upcoming 2010 Philippine Elections and What Comes After

60% Noynoy will win. If he doesn't there will be numerous street protests and he will be eventually be instituted as President.

40% Villar will win through popularity augmented by cheating.

Gordon, Bayani, Gibo will eventually be given various government or key positions in huge corporations. Binay will once again rule Makati (through his son). Loren will once again demand for a recount (HO-HUM). Erap will die out of a broken heart for losing. The rest will fade into history or jockey for another position.

Now, what will happen if Noynoy becomes President?

1st Year is a Witch hunt: Noynoy will go after GMA, her cronies & midnight appointments. Meanwhile, in the background, Drilon & Mar will be consolidating their power base and plotting their alliances.

2nd Year people will start to murmur about his dictatorship type of ruling: "What I say goes, screw due process and the Constitution. There is no separation of powers. It's just me. And I have the divine right because the people gave it to me." Former allies will start to grumble and one by one turn against him.

3rd Year Late third year, sensing Noynoy's weakness, there will be a coup attempt. This will fail because the military will sense that there's no civilian support.

4th Year Noynoy will be questioned as to what has he accomplished. What happened to his promises? Why are the same trapos in power doing what they want? Another coup attempt or more possibly a Constitutional coup by the Congress & Senate to change the government & consequently unseat him. (Gloria will lead the charge but will be shunted to the side once her task has been completed.)

5th Year Noynoy will have a nervous breakdown and subsequently die of a heart attack. (No, he never marries Shalani.) Mar becomes President or First Prime Minister if the Constitutional change is pushed through.

6th Year Mar starts campaigning for President for 2016 or angling to remain Prime Minister.

Just for the sake of being thorough, what will happen if Villar becomes President?

1st Year: There will be numerous rallies against him, accusing him of cheating. He will not even have a honeymoon period with the media.

2nd Year: Several questionable deals will be bared and there will be numerous Senate inquiries, until one monumentally greedy one comes into the surface and causes a major stir in the population.

3rd Year: There will be another EDSA type revolt to unseat him. Old enemies Mar, Binay, BF, Gibo etc... join together. Although whether successful or not, this becomes a non-issue as Congress and other parties insist on a Constitutional Convention to convert the government type to Parliamentary. Senate will give in, because they will be given interim positions and Blue Ribbon Committee Chairs to serve out the remainder of their positions as well as twice or thrice the voting power and pork of other members.

4th Year: Villar is impeached (thanks to the documentary evidence presented by none other than Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo) and replaced by Mar as new head of the Parliament until the end of his term.

5th Year: Things will simmer down a little with occasional pockets of protests because of the new system of government.

6th Year: Everybody prepares for the most vicious election yet as Congressional seats because highly contested.