Fearless Forecast of the Upcoming 2010 Philippine Elections and What Comes After

60% Noynoy will win. If he doesn't there will be numerous street protests and he will be eventually be instituted as President.

40% Villar will win through popularity augmented by cheating.

Gordon, Bayani, Gibo will eventually be given various government or key positions in huge corporations. Binay will once again rule Makati (through his son). Loren will once again demand for a recount (HO-HUM). Erap will die out of a broken heart for losing. The rest will fade into history or jockey for another position.

Now, what will happen if Noynoy becomes President?

1st Year is a Witch hunt: Noynoy will go after GMA, her cronies & midnight appointments. Meanwhile, in the background, Drilon & Mar will be consolidating their power base and plotting their alliances.

2nd Year people will start to murmur about his dictatorship type of ruling: "What I say goes, screw due process and the Constitution. There is no separation of powers. It's just me. And I have the divine right because the people gave it to me." Former allies will start to grumble and one by one turn against him.

3rd Year Late third year, sensing Noynoy's weakness, there will be a coup attempt. This will fail because the military will sense that there's no civilian support.

4th Year Noynoy will be questioned as to what has he accomplished. What happened to his promises? Why are the same trapos in power doing what they want? Another coup attempt or more possibly a Constitutional coup by the Congress & Senate to change the government & consequently unseat him. (Gloria will lead the charge but will be shunted to the side once her task has been completed.)

5th Year Noynoy will have a nervous breakdown and subsequently die of a heart attack. (No, he never marries Shalani.) Mar becomes President or First Prime Minister if the Constitutional change is pushed through.

6th Year Mar starts campaigning for President for 2016 or angling to remain Prime Minister.

Just for the sake of being thorough, what will happen if Villar becomes President?

1st Year: There will be numerous rallies against him, accusing him of cheating. He will not even have a honeymoon period with the media.

2nd Year: Several questionable deals will be bared and there will be numerous Senate inquiries, until one monumentally greedy one comes into the surface and causes a major stir in the population.

3rd Year: There will be another EDSA type revolt to unseat him. Old enemies Mar, Binay, BF, Gibo etc... join together. Although whether successful or not, this becomes a non-issue as Congress and other parties insist on a Constitutional Convention to convert the government type to Parliamentary. Senate will give in, because they will be given interim positions and Blue Ribbon Committee Chairs to serve out the remainder of their positions as well as twice or thrice the voting power and pork of other members.

4th Year: Villar is impeached (thanks to the documentary evidence presented by none other than Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo) and replaced by Mar as new head of the Parliament until the end of his term.

5th Year: Things will simmer down a little with occasional pockets of protests because of the new system of government.

6th Year: Everybody prepares for the most vicious election yet as Congressional seats because highly contested.

Applauding GMA's Deviousness for the upcoming elections

Wow. If this is not an example of political prowess, I don't know what is.

GMA became senator mainly through a poster pose of her looking so much like Nora Aunor in a barrio-lass setting.

Instead of running for President, she became vice-president to the most inept Philippine President ever--ERAP. Consequently, he got deposed and she became President.

Presidents' terms are limited, but she got around that because she just took over Erap's presidency and got 're-elected'. This despite the "Hello, Garci" controversy and the grievous US diplomatic ties fiasco.

Now, she nominated a peon for President while she's running for Congress in an unprecedented move.

Everyone knows she's doing it so she can manipulate Congress into a Constitutional change that will change the form of government to one which would allow her to become Prime Minister. (Good luck with that. Wait till she come across the barriers of multiple SELF-INTERESTS.)

Now let's take a look at how the elections are coming along:

Noynoy who once had a COMMANDING LEAD and was a sure-win for President is slowly and steadily losing his lead. How?

The 'Surveys' are being crafted.

The fielding of too many presidentiables dilutes the vote. At first, I didn't believe that there was a plot, but when the incompetent Erap was allowed to run, that's when I became convinced that there is a move to dilute the votes. I believe that they do this, so come elections time if the fielded unpopular admin candidate wins by oh, 6%, people will accept it and not sense any foul play.

Now they're working on Villar, the next most popular candidate, Mr. "C5 at Taga".

And in the off-chance that Gibo will not be popular to take it, it is rumored that Gordon is the palace's 3rd bet. (Gibo the official, Villar the real candidate, Gordon the spare)

How can this be counter-acted?

Simple.

Other candidates must back-off in favor of Noynoy. They could also die.

But what makes this option, so hard? SELF-INTEREST. Who among the remaining candidates are selfless enough to back-off to make this happen?

Or, let me place myself in their shoes... If I will back off, how sure am I that Noynoy will protect me from the sharks later on? The indecisiveness he is exhibiting does not make me confident about his ability, nor his tendency to let other parties dictate his actions.

Of all the candidates, I know Dick Gordon could take them. He has the balls for it. But he's too unpopular right now.

The only way Dick Gordon could take this election is if Villar's campaign is thoroughly ruined by the C5 at Taga and Noynoy collapses from exhaustion. Between him and Gibo, he is more reliable.

Gibo's just a peon who passes off blame and work on everybody else. If the top two collapses, I doubt that people's votes will filter to him.

The majority who can make a difference in this election are quiet but they are closely observing the proceedings.

GMA's game for May 2010

While a lot of people are rallying, blogging, ranting & pulling their hair out, GMA has been laying down the groundwork for her goals for years now.

She got incompetent speakers so people will get distracted by them and it frees her to move in the back ground.

She has been courting international powers like China & the US through trade concessions and visiting forces agreements. They will support her or at least look the other way when she makes her move.

In an unprecedented move, she's running for Congress. The guesswork is that she'll make moves within the Congress to create a constitutional amendment to change the form of government in the Philippines which would consequently allow her to become Prime Minister.

She's fielding a lame candidate for President, Gibo and even lamer vice-president Edu. If they win the elections using her machinery, she can easily unseat them as she performs a coup within the Congress.

Nuisance candidates like Erap has been allowed to run again to dilute the votes further from the front runner Noynoy Aquino.

It is rumored that she also has back door dealings with second runner up, Manny Villar.

It's being set-up as early as now that with Noynoy's overwhelming popularity it's impossible for him to lose and that only cheating can prevent his ascendancy as the next President. When that happens, there could be a failure of elections and an ensuing civilian agitation, necessitating her to remain as interim President.

She's allowing agitation in Mindanao which would eventually require American intervention and consequently a US Military Base in Mindanao.

She's all over the nation, in the fields, solidifying her power base in the provinces.

She's all over the world, positioning herself as a power figure in this country whether in an elected position or not.

Whoever wins or loses, she has her foot in the door. VERY SMART. I applaud her mind games & effort.

But it won't work.

This country's nature is chaotic and contrary. It can also be aggravatingly stubborn in a passive aggressive manner. Anyone who seeks to control it's people with an iron fist or manipulative schemes is in for a huge disappointment.

So GMA, go forth and do what you think is right. But you are just being used by fate to move this country forward. Do not be surprised when within the grasp of total victory, you will lose it all.

Presidential Elections 2010: Manalo, Matalo, sila-sila pa rin

At this point, I can deal with either Noynoy, Gibo, Villar or Gordon becoming president.

At the end of the day, they're all one and the same to me. They are members of the oligarchs who may be enemies now, but ultimately will stand together first before standing with the masses.

Noynoy & Gibo are cousins. Conjuanco cousins. One of the biggest and oldest landed elites of the Philippines.

Villar is a member of the elite business sector: The billionaire club. You can say that he's a prodigious urban-mountaineer who married someone from a wealthy and landed family.

Gordon is a member of the political elite: a wily politician who can outmaneuver & outwit the best of them. To his credit, amongst all the other candidates mentioned here, he has clear and concrete accomplishments. But he comes across as desperate arrogant asshole. No surprise that in this race he's not even in the top three.

There are talks of GMA (this is getting old) being the real power behind the throne. She's backing Gibo, but she's also in talks with Villar, even Gordon. The way it's being said, it seems that the only way GMA can be shut out is by voting Noynoy. (Please see previous blog entry why I think this is not so.)

Gibo has the political machinery of the present administration to boost his numbers. The present administration is famous for having 'magical powers' when it comes to 'arranging for favorable election results'.

Villar has billions to burn to augment his popularity with votes bought.

Noynoy has the extremely long shadow of his legendary parents and infamous sister to boost his popularity.

Gordon is well, not a threat and is just there, struggling.

But at this point, knowing how things work in this country, I am not that concerned who officially gets crowned in the end.

What matters is whoever gets elected will not sell out my country to the US, or China or anyone else.

What matters is that everything remains as stable as possible.

What matters is that civil liberties will not be curtailed or mandated.

What matters is that the rest of us can get on with our lives and can concentrate on making each of our little lives better.

This way, the rest of the population can gather their strength. Even slowly. BUT surely.

Then in time, the political playing field in this country would be more level.

Then the game becomes more interesting...

Why I cannot vote for Noynoy Aquino

I cannot, in good conscience, vote for Noynoy Aquino.

For a long time, I really considered him because at first it seemed he was a symbol of a return to decency.

I turned a blind eye to the way he took advantage of his mother Cory Aquino's death, to launch his presidential bid. I brushed away his choice of a younger mate who's motives seem to be questionable. I tried to ignore the way he vacillated when there was a clamor to have him run for President--even if I really found it laughable that he still had to consult with his sisters & went on a retreat to 'accept his destiny'. It was charming when Cory did it, but with him it just felt choreographed. I didn't mind that his achievements personal or as senator were neither noteworthy nor relevant.

We were tired of savvy trapos (traditional politicians) who manipulate and fool us to our faces. Noynoy was the messiah against these evils the same way his mother was against the most infamous dictator of all--Marcos.

Then he started cavorting and dealing with the very politicians we were trying to reject.

Then he made this statement:

"If elected President, I will not recognize a Chief Justice appointed by the outgoing President,”

That made me sit up. How can he be that thoughtless and tactless?! The unconsciousness of the implication of his public statement is what alarmed me the most. It's not just because he's threatening the balance of power of the branches of government. It's a bad signal as to his general attitude.

His popularity right now is directly pinned on how most people hate Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. They're marketing him as the anti-Gloria. How he will be everything she is not. That would mean that he's going to be forthright, 'good' and not power hungry.

But that's his marketing. And to me it's largely untested. An honest man is not someone who has never lied. An honest man is someone who, being given the opportunity to lie, did not. At this point, I am becoming certain that it's just the image they're projecting on him.

It also came to mind that this incident is the sign of a petty man bent on vendetta more than on good governance. Just like his mother was. I am afraid of history repeating itself: That instead of using the people's rallying support to manage this country better, he would spend his time undoing and going after everything GMA-related. This is exactly what Cory exhausted her efforts on when she was President: getting back at the Marcoses and their cronies. Here is a man who could believe that popular support would give him a free hand to re shape the governmental structure as he pleases. Screw the repercussions (if he knows what they are.)

It is with a heavy heart that I came to this conclusion. I really wanted to vote for him.

But as the way things are, I have deduced for myself that Noynoy does not have the savvy, backbone nor compassion (malasakit) for this country.

You do not trash the system just because your predecessor is closely identified with it. There are ways of managing that personal directive without publicly challenging a pillar of this society.

If he lacked the foresight and tact to avoid saying inflammatory statements this early in the game, then he lost my vote.

I cannot in good conscience vote for some clueless individual as President. The margin for error is much much smaller at that high level.

Maguindanao Massacre: A different perspective

When news of this massacre first broke out, the first thing that went through my head was "F#$%@! American Business Interests."

I was horrified by the event. I still am. But something about it just did not add up.

Infighting amongst warlords in the Philippines especially in that region is common, especially now that the May 2010 presidential elections is just looming around the corner.

What made me stop and think was that this was too vicious and too blatant. They usually try to keep it within them so as not to attract attention.

This was different: It involved women and journalists and they were murdered in the most heinous fashion. It almost feels engineered to spark riots or a rebellion.

Then it occurred to me, of all 'coincidences', after years of being ignored by Washington, wasn't Hillary Clinton, the current Secretary of State of the United States of America, just here for a visit about 10 days before the massacre? One of her main agenda for coming here: 'peace talks' in Mindanao.

And didn't Gloria just visit Hillary in Washington before that?

Then I remembered, aren't Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and Hillary Clinton also related? Gloria was Bill Clinton's classmate at Georgetown University and Hillary's the wife of Bill.

It got me into thinking. It's too much of a coincidence.

Arroyo is the wiliest living politician I have ever come across. You just have to admire her from that point of view, despite wanting to crucify her from a moralistic standpoint. I just know she's hedging to become the next Prime Minister by entering the Congress and manipulating things from there. But she knows that you need US support for that. Or at least non-interference.

GMA must be dangling something for the US, and it's somehow related to American Business Interests in the area, but what?

What does Maguindanao have to offer anyway?

Where is Maguindanao? Courtesy of Google Maps, I was able to center it in perspective to the world. It's right smack in the middle of the Asia Pacific Region. If there will be some sort of military base there, it would provide good access points to US, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia as well as great jump off point for mainland Asia (i.e. China).

Had the perpetrator's plans worked perfectly, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) would have been blamed. The local terrorists. Terrorists. Terrorist who trained with Al-Queda. Al-Queda: founded by Osama Bin Laden. Bin Laden, the US' most wanted terrorist.

Currently the US & Philippines have a Visiting Forces Agreement. Basically this allows the US to have US base-like privileges here without having a US Military base in the country. US Military personnel are present here and conduct 'military exercises' in this country. (Note that these exercises are done in Mindanao).

If the 'guilt' of these terrorists have been established, the US would have swarmed all over Maguindanao to 'help'. They already have the forces in place. And if they succeeded, whooopteedo, grateful Philippines would be more than willing to host another military base in Maguindanao.

It's a good thing the whole thing was marred by a comedy of errors: the yellow backhoe left on the scene being a prominent clue. How this case will end still remains to be seen.

What else could make Maguindanao appealing? What is that thing that US went to war for again? Oh, yeah, OIL. I'm sure the wealth of other natural resources like minerals and timbre in the area isn't something to scoff at either. And oh, wasn't there another APEC summit before this all went down?

TIMELINE

• February 1, 1996: Drilling for Oil in Maguindanao goes full blast
• November 22-26, 2009: APEC 1996 Summit - Subic, Philippines (First time Hillary Clinton came to the Philippines with Bill Clinton. Gloria was Senator back then.)
• July 2, 2009: Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo meets Hillary Clinton in Washington
• November 11, 2009: Hillary Clinton Arrives in Manila
• November 13-14, 2009: APEC 2009 Summit - Singapore
• November 23, 2009: News about the Maguindanao 'Ampatuan' Massacre broke out.
• May 10, 2010: Philippine National Elections

Sources:

The Ampatuan Massacre: a map and timeline: http://www.gmanews.tv/story/177821/the-ampatuan-massacre-a-map-and-timeline

Philippines 'poll-related' deaths reach 57: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8377875.stm

Witness: 'We just followed orders': http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia-pacific/2009/11/2009112654959580381.html

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia-http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia-pacific/2009/11/2009112711929847698.htmlpacific/2009/11/2009112711929847698.html

Clinton arrives in Manila: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/11/12/09/clinton-arrives-manila

Clinton vows Philippines support: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8356092.stm

Arroyo meets Hillary Clinton: http://globalnation.inquirer.net/news/breakingnews/view/20090207-187990/Arroyo-meets-Hillary-Clinton

Profile: Gloria Arroyo: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/2614607.stm

DFA bares agenda for Clinton visit http://globalnation.inquirer.net/news/breakingnews/view/20091107-234828/DFA-bares-agenda-for-Clinton-visit

APEC 1996 Summit - Subic, Philippines: http://www.international.gc.ca/apec/summit-sommet_1996.aspx?lang=eng

APEC: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asia-Pacific_Economic_Cooperation

RP-US VISITING FORCES AGREEMENT: http://www.chanrobles.com/visitingforcesagreement1.htm

RP-US Visiting Forces Agreement: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RP-US_Visiting_Forces_Agreement

Moro National Liberation Front: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moro_Islamic_Liberation_Front

Maguindanao Oil Drilling goes Full Blast: http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1370&dat=19960201&id=oJUVAAAAIBAJ&sjid=IAsEAAAAIBAJ&pg=3708,425220

APEC CEO Summit 2009: http://www.apec2009.sg/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=100&catid=38

GMA's Last SONA

A lot of people had a fun time yesterday ridiculing GMA and her speech. Her outrageous Ursula-inspired dress, her 'unfounded' declarations, her 'outrageous' claims etc... etc...

They may be right. She may be planning to extend her term etc... etc...

But for me, I am glad that she was our president during these last years. This is my personal sentiment.

I have no charts, no studies, no surveys to validate this save my personal experience of how I and the people around me lived during her administration in comparison to the life before her.

She fixed the HUGE mess Erap made when he was in office. In all levels of the bureaucrasy (yes it is still corrupt), I've noticed the way things stepped up and got organized.

We remained relatively stable despite the world wide snafu.

I've noticed how easy it is for OFWs and Balikbayans to transact business here and send money.

I've noticed the way the traffic has flowed better (yes it is still agravating) when MMDA Chairman Bayani made all the necessary changes.

I've noticed how the roads have been cleared of illegal sidewalk vendors and how the illegal squatters in Metro Manila has been addressed.

I've noticed how the port, airport & road infrastructures have improved around the country.

I've noticed how she seems to be everywhere everyday in this country abroad. How she has the reputation for being efficient and on time.

She is not perfect. But I am happy with her.

However, no matter how satisfied I am with her, I do not want her to stay beyond 2010. Even if we get a lame president after her, I prefer this rather than render our democratic process futile.